R/RiskKit
Trading system / Expected value

Trading Expectancy Calculator

Find the average R implied by your win rate and payoff—and see what that average would mean across 100 trades. The result describes your inputs, not a guaranteed sequence.

Your trading inputs

01 / 02

The share of completed trades that ended as winners.

%

Average winning trade in R when an average loss is 1R.

R

Enter a constant cash amount to express expectancy in money.

USD

This labels the cash amount; it does not convert exchange rates.

Expected outcome

02 / 02
Expectancy per trade+0.26R

Positive expectancy before costs

Expected over 100 trades+26.00R
Break-even win rate35.7%
Expected wins / 10045.0
Expected losses / 10055.0
Average cash result per trade+$26.00
Expected cash result / 100 trades+$2,600.00

“Over 100 trades” means 100 × the mathematical average. Realised profit or loss can differ sharply, even with an unchanged trading edge.

The calculation

What does expectancy measure?

Expectancy is the average win or loss per trade implied by a win rate and an average payoff. Let p be win rate as a decimal and b be the average winning trade in R. If each loss is −1R, the result is (p × b) − (1 − p) R per trade.

For a 45% win rate and 1.8R average win, the result is 0.45 × 1.8 − 0.55 = +0.26R. At a constant $100 cash risk, that is a mathematical average of $26 per trade or $2,600 across 100 trades—before transaction costs and without guaranteeing the next 100 trades.

Use better inputs

  • Estimate win rate and average win from completed trades, not targets.
  • Use realised average outcomes, including partial exits and unusually large losses.
  • Account for fees, spreads and slippage before treating a positive figure as a viable edge.
  • Use the Fixed Risk Simulator or Kelly Simulator to explore different trade sequences and drawdowns.

Why a positive average can still feel risky

Expectancy says nothing about the order of wins and losses. A system with a positive average can still encounter a long losing streak, large drawdown or a stop-trading threshold. Use the Losing Streak Calculator to estimate the chance of a rough run under an independent-trades model. Our guide to reading Monte Carlo equity paths explains how to interpret P10/P50/P90 cases and risk of ruin before relying on a simulation.

RiskKit provides educational calculations, not investment advice or a prediction of future returns. The calculator assumes constant win rate, payoff and cash risk; it does not model changing markets, position sizing, fees or taxes.