Losing Streak Calculator
Estimate the chance of seeing at least one run of consecutive losses during a planned number of trades. Use it to test whether your risk per trade can withstand a rough sequence—not to predict when one will occur.
Sequence risk
02 / 02Exact probability under the independent-trades model
The chance of a streak somewhere in 100 trades is not the same as the chance that the next six trades all lose. Overlapping streaks are counted once, not added together.
Why do streaks occur in profitable systems?
Even with a positive trading expectancy, wins and losses can arrive in an uncomfortable order. This tool assumes every trade independently wins with the entered win rate and loses otherwise. It tracks the probability of being on a current run of 0, 1, 2 and more losses, then removes paths once they reach your chosen streak length. The remaining probability is the chance of no such streak; subtracting it from 100% gives the result above.
The “next trades all lose” figure is simpler: it is (1 − win rate)streak length. That is a single specified block of trades, not the probability that a streak appears anywhere in your entire horizon.
If you add a balance, the illustrative result is starting balance × (1 − risk %)streak length. This assumes every loss equals the chosen percentage of then-current equity, with no deposits, fees, gaps or changing position size rules.
Use the result responsibly
- Estimate win rate from a meaningful sample of completed trades; a few wins are not a stable estimate.
- Real trades may be correlated, and win rates can shift across market conditions. Either effect can make actual streaks different from this model.
- Choose a loss streak your account and rules should be able to survive, then inspect the balance example.
- For full equity paths, drawdown and a user-defined ruin floor, use the Fixed Risk Simulator.