Losing Streak Calculator
Estimate the chance of seeing at least one run of consecutive losses during a planned number of trades. Use it to test whether your risk per trade can withstand a rough sequence—not to predict when one will occur.
Sequence risk
02 / 02Exact probability under the independent-trades model
The chart shows cumulative probability of at least one qualifying streak by each trade count, assuming independent trades and a constant win rate. Overlapping streaks are counted once.
How likely are 6 losses in 100 trades?
With a 45% win rate, the exact independent-trades model gives a 72.9% chance of seeing at least one run of 6 consecutive losses somewhere within 100 trades. The chance that one specific block of the next 6 trades all loses is only 2.8%. At 1% fixed-fraction risk, a $10,000 account would be about $9,414.80 after that six-loss streak. Change any input above to reproduce the calculation.
Why do streaks occur in profitable systems?
Even with a positive trading expectancy, wins and losses can arrive in an uncomfortable order. This tool assumes every trade independently wins with the entered win rate and loses otherwise. It tracks the probability of being on a current run of 0, 1, 2 and more losses, then removes paths once they reach your chosen streak length. The remaining probability is the chance of no such streak; subtracting it from 100% gives the result above.
The “next trades all lose” figure is simpler: it is (1 − win rate)streak length. That is a single specified block of trades, not the probability that a streak appears anywhere in your entire horizon.
If you add a balance, the illustrative result is starting balance × (1 − risk %)streak length. This assumes every loss equals the chosen percentage of then-current equity, with no deposits, fees, gaps or changing position size rules.
Use the result responsibly
- Estimate win rate from a meaningful sample of completed trades; a few wins are not a stable estimate.
- Real trades may be correlated, and win rates can shift across market conditions. Either effect can make actual streaks different from this model.
- Choose a loss streak your account and rules should be able to survive, then inspect the balance example.
- For full equity paths, drawdown and a user-defined ruin floor, use the Fixed Risk Simulator.
Losing streak probability FAQ
What is the probability of a losing streak in 100 trades?
It depends on the win rate and the streak length. The calculator evaluates whether the streak occurs anywhere across the full 100-trade horizon—not only in the next block of trades.
Can a profitable trading system have a long losing streak?
Yes. Positive expectancy describes an average, not the order of results. A profitable system can still produce clusters of losses and a material drawdown.
Does this predict the next losing streak?
No. It estimates probability under a constant win rate and independent-trades assumption. It cannot identify when a future streak will begin.
How does risk per trade affect the drawdown?
With fixed-fraction sizing, every loss reduces the current balance by the selected percentage. Higher risk per trade compounds into a larger drawdown across the same streak.